Developing Asia and emerging economies will increasingly play a greater role and are expected to be key drivers of global economic growth, according to the latest, updated world economic outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In 2009, the IMF has projected output for the advanced economies to contract 0.3%, instead of the earlier 0.5% growth projection.
The spotlight will be placed on the emerging markets, which are projected to slow down but to reach 5% growth next year, powered by developing Asia with 7.1% GDP growth. This is 0.6% lower than IMF’s most recent forecast in October but relatively higher than other regions.
The IMF has readjusted China and India’s 2009 GDP projections to 8.5% and 6.3%, from an earlier forecast of 9.3% and 6.9% respectively.
World Economic Outlook Update, Nov 2008 – IMF
Graphic source – Livemint
A new study by MasterCard, the Worldwide Centers of Commerce: Emerging Markets Index, seeks to identify and rank the 65 most influential cities driving growth within more than 30 emerging markets, offering companies “a roadmap of where commerce is headed next”.
The 8 dimensions that determine the cities’ overall ranking include business climate, political environment, economic and commercial environment, economic growth and development,financial services environment, commercial connectivity, quality of urban life, education and IT connectivity.
Dominating the pack of potential development hubs in global business is China with 15 of the top 30 cities and four in the top ten. China also claims 7 of the region’s top ten Emerging Markets Index cities, with Shanghai and Beijing leading in first and second positions respectively.
Shanghai was also the number one ranked city for the “Economic Growth & Development” and “Commercial Connectivity” dimensions. Beijing, which is China’s political and cultural centre, was placed first in the “Education and IT Connectivity” factor.
MasterCard Emerging Markets Index 2008 – Overall Ranking
Rank City Country
1 Shanghai China
2 Beijing China
3 Budapest Hungary
4 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia
5 Santiago Chile
6 Guangzhou China
7 Mexico City Mexico
8 Warsaw Poland
9 Bangkok Thailand
10 Shenzhen China
11 Johannesburg South Africa
12 São Paulo Brazil
13 Buenos Aires Argentina
14 Moscow Russia
15 Istanbul Turkey
16 Xiamen China
17 Chengdu China
18 Dalian China
19 Mumbai India
20 Tianjin China
20 Nanjing China
22 Hangzhou China
23 Wuhan China
24 Chongqing China
25 Qingdao China
26 Xian China
27 Harbin China
28 New Delhi India
28 Monterrey Mexico
30 Sofia Bulgaria
The strength of Shanghai and Beijing is in part explained by their location in China with its phenomenal growth and global reach, particularly the exceptional connectivity among all of the Chinese cities and between them and leading centers in Asia, North America and Europe, cited the MasterCard report.
Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur (4th) and Bangkok (9th) in Thailand both ranked highly in the Asian region and were among the top 10 emerging cities globally due to their strong regional transportation roles and solid growth.
India’s commercial centre, Mumbai, came out tops in the “Financial Services Environment” category, ahead of Shanghai and Kuala Lumpur. Mumbai received the top score in the dimension of banking services and currency exchange regulations, and ranked highly on the volume of financial services traded.
In all, 8 cities from India made the top 30 cities on the list of 65 important commercial centres in emerging countries. New Delhi was ranked 6th in terms of commercial connectivity below Shanghai, Bangkok, Moscow and Sao Paulo. Amongst the overall ranking, New Delhi was in 28th position, Bangalore was placed at 38th position, followed by Chennai (39th), Hyderabad (46th), Kolkata (48th), Pune (52nd) and Coimbatore (54th).
