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November 28th, 2008 at 7:53 am

Asia Inflation and Economy Overview in November, Oct 2008

Asia’s third largest economy, India, grew 7.6% in the third quarter of 2008 from a year ago, at the weakest pace in nearly 4 years. China’s GDP rose 9% in the 3-month period to September year-on-year. The economic growth forecast for China in 2009 is estimated at 8.5%, 8% and 7.5% as projected by the IMF, OECD and World Bank respectively.
india quarterly GDP economic growth 2008
In the rest of the Asia Pacific region, Japan, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan are now in recession. Annual GDP in the third-quarter of this year – Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, and Hong Kong grew by 6.1%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.1%, 4% and 3.9% respectively, while Singapore and Taiwan contracted by 0.6% and 1% respectively

Australia – 3.9 percent inflation for the year to October from 5% last month, the first time the CPI has eased since Feb 2006. The OECD projects that its GDP is set to slow to 1.7% in 2009 from 2.5% this year, and lower interest rates and government spending will likely help Australia to avert a recession.

China – 4 percent in October, slowing for the 6th straight month. The CPI was 6.7% in the year to October and down from 7% in the first three quarters of 2008, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCHINA/Images/318861-1227548308565/Fig-10.jpg
Source – World Bank, Nov 2008

India – 8.84 percent for the week ended Nov 15, slowing to a 6-month low as inflation has eased for the third successive week and almost halved from August’s 16-year high of 12.91%

Indonesia – 11.77 percent for October, easing from a 2-year high of 12.14% in prior month due to higher food prices ahead of the Eid al-Fitr Muslim celebrations

Japan – 1.9 percent in October, slowing for a second month from 2.3% in Sept. Japanese factory output (PMI) contracted for the 9th straight month in November and consumer spending per household fell 3.8% year-on-year in October. The OECD had predicted that Japan is facing the biggest threat of deflation among industrialized nations next year.

Japan’s household consumption had declined from 1.7% growth in the first quarter of 2008 from a year ago, to 0.4% in the second quarter and 0.3% in the third quarter.
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/11/24/saupload_japan_household_consumption.png
Source – SeekingAlpha

Hong Kong – 1.8 percent in October, but CPI stood at 5.9% if excluding the HK government’s implementation of relief measures including an electricity subsidy and temporary waiver of public housing rentals.

South Korea – 4.8 percent in October, moderating from 5.1% in September, 5.6% in August and 5.9% in July

Malaysia – 7.6 percent in October, a 5-month low from a 26-year high of 8.5% in August, largely attributed to the reduction in petrol and diesel prices cut for the third time by the government on Oct 15. Malaysia’s economic growth slowed to 4.7% in the 3rd quarter, from 6.7% in the previous 3 months.

Philippines – 11.2 percent in October, retreating from last month’s 11.8% and a 17-year high in August. The Philippine economy grew 4.6% for the third quarter, slumping from 7.1% GDP over the same period last year, according to the National Statistical Coordination Board. A seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate of 0.9% “kept the Philippine economy outside of recession territory.”

Singapore – 6.4 percent in October, down slightly from last month thanks to lower oil prices. CPI still high mainly due to higher housing, food costs and a 21% increase in electricity tariffs. Full-year inflation expected to be at 6.6%.

Taiwan – 2.39 percent, the lowest CPI reading in more than 12 months. Taiwan’s economy is sliding into a recession and its annual per capita income is predicted to fall from US$18,020 this year to US$17,651 next year. By end-January, the government plans to launch a NT$83.5 billion(US$2.5 billion) stimulus package which includes handing out NT$3,600 in shopping vouchers to each citizen.

Thailand – 3.9 percent in October, a welcome relief from last month’s 6%

Vietnam – 24.22 percent in November, easing from Oct’s reported 26.7%. Average CPI for the first eleven months of the year was still 23.25% higher than the end of November a year ago. Overall inflation rate for 2008 estimated at 22%.

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